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BP & the 100 Year Showdown

In 1872 William Knox D’Arcy had the good sense to marry Elena Birkbeck of Rockhampton, the daughter of a successful mining engineer. After a decent legal career D’Arcy was launched into the world of speculating.
In this, it turned out, he had a special talent.

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Silent Warnings in Real Estate

If you locked in a 30-year fixed mortgage rate on a $600,000 house at 2.6% interest rate in 2021 you have the same monthly mortgage payment as someone that just bought a $380,000 home at today’s 6.5% mortgage rate.

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Friendly Fire

Have you ever wondered why we no longer invade middle eastern countries? I’ll give you a hint. It has nothing to do with Trump…

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Which do you want to be?

Democrats passed the Inflation Reduction Act and it magically made inflation vanish, even before the bill was signed into law. This is how good the bill is, it retroactively reduced inflation.

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Rates & the Market

Recently we discussed how, as the Fed raises rates, we expect the dollar to continue its move higher, and a subsequent rally in broader equity markets.

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The USD

Last week we saw another MASSIVE inflation print as headline CPI reached a four-decade high: 9.1%

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A closer look.

I am not saying that a recession is imminent, but one may be lurking around the corner; and if it’s not a recession, it’s probably recession’s cousin stagflation.

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